BNFL Picks

Lions at Bills

Week 2 · Fri, Sep 18, 12:15 AM

Board
Lions logo
Lions
26
Projected total
57
Bills by 5 · 64%
Bills logo
Bills
31

Post-game review

See what the model predicted, what actually happened, and the small dial changes that would have closed the gap.

My line vs the book

Spread (BUF)
Total
My line
-5.0
57
Book line
-5.5
54.5
Difference
0.5
2.5 Over
Line from DraftKingsCLV — (enter a closing line on Odds & CLV)

Notable injuries

Quarterbacks always shown; other spots when the tag matters
Lions logoLions0 listed · 0 sidelined

No notable injuries reported.

Bills logoBills0 listed · 0 sidelined

No notable injuries reported.

Rushing projection

119.5
rush yds/gm
157.9
131.3
opp rush allowed
118.3
125.4
midpoint
138.1
134.3
projected rush
162.8
+14.8
comfort
+5.0
99.0
yds per rush TD
85.3
1.36 → 1
rush TDs
1.91 → 2

Passing projection

268.4
pass yds/gm
240.9
185.6
opp pass allowed
247.7
227.0
midpoint
244.3
228.8
projected pass
265.0
-39.6
comfort
+24.1
123.7
yds per pass TD
133.9
1.85 → 2
pass TDs
1.98 → 2

Field goals & totals

255.4
yds per FG
343.0
1.42 → 1
field goals
1.25 → 1
363.1
total yards proj
427.8
379.7
swing-adjusted yds
439.6
26.71
raw points
30.97

Turnover pressure

3.0
def sacks/gm
2.3
0.8
def INT/gm
0.7
0.9
turnovers proj
0.6
-0.4
pressure adj
-0.8
26
final score
31